The Vulnerability Assessment tool developed in the framework of MPA4Change allows to measure how vulnerable ecosystems and human activities are to climate change. Nonetheless, this predictive tool provides further benefits and it has proved to be very useful for the daily management of a Marine Protected Area.
Why vulnerability to climate change should be assessed in an MPA?
Vulnerability Assessment is a study to estimate the vulnerability of species, habitats and socio-economic activities. It considers the impacts of climate change relative to different emission scenarios (RCPs), from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic (or realistic) at different time scales (2050-2100).
It allows to identify in advance the “compartments” that are likely to be impacted in the future, especially when combined with natural capital studies. Therefore, t is an excellent management forecasting tool that can help the drafting of an adaptation plan to be integrated with the management plan of a Marine Protected Area (MPA).
The process for drafting a Vulnerability Assessment study also has an indirect positive aspect: in fact, if done directly by MPA staff, it will enrich their knowledge on the different aspects and compartments that characterize the MPA through literature research, monitoring, and collaboration with stakeholders. moreover, it could be useful for identifying gaps in knowledge and then working to fill them.
Vulnerability Assessment in Portofino Marine Protected Area
Portofino MPA carried out its first Vulnerability Assessment study in 2018, during a project preceding MPA4Change. A great amount of work was done over the years first to get familiar with the tool and then for the collection of data and information, through field work but also through bibliographic research.
Graphic showing the results of the species vulnerability assessment in Portofino MPA – Image ceaded by Lorenzo Merotto
The process was possible thanks to an existing and clear protocol for the implementation of the Vulnerability Assessment study, standardized and well-coordinated by the University of Vigo, Spain. The whole drafting of the study took about two years and allowed for projections in the different scenarios of both emissions and time.
The results, especially related to RCP 8.5 (the scenario in which there are no improvements from the emissions point of view compared to the current situation) for 2050 and 2100 are alarming: the main species and habitats that characterize Portofino MPA show “high vulnerability” or “extreme vulnerability”. Consequently, the same results were found for human activities, a fact that we often tend to forget, whose subsistence is linked to the health of the habitats themselves.
The Vulnerability Assessment is a very valuable tool because it considers not only environmental/climatic aspects but also socio-economic ones. These impacts include those derived from human activities on the habitats themselves, which act synergistically with those related to climate change. Impacts related to climate aspects cannot be counteracted at the local level, as opposed to “direct human” impacts and it is from this assumption that the actions to be included in the adaptation plan arise.
Based on the results of the Vulnerability Assessment and the involvement of the different stakeholder categories (the same as those included in the study), actions were identified to reduce the impact of human activities on habitats to make them less sensitive to climate change.
The interesting thing is that almost all of the “identified” actions such as reducing fishing activities impacting the seabed, anchorages, increasing awareness, restoration operations, etc.., do not directly address climate change but are “standard” management actions for an MPA, which collaterally help to improve resilience and resistance to climate change.
Other applications of Vulnerability Assessment studies
Vulnerability assessment, especially when combined with natural capital assessment studies, is an excellent tool for dialoguing with policy makers. It shows how much “economic value” disappears along with “environmental value” providing lead decision makers with certain information to make decisions directed toward environmental conservation.
In conclusion, vulnerability assessment is a challenging study, but once carried out it is an invaluable tool for the day-to-day management of an MPA. At the end of November 2024, a Vulnerability Assessment training will be held in Faro (Portugal) in order to support AP Marine e Uni Algarve in the process in the drafting process of this important tool!
